于组合赋权-云模型的绿色建筑项目全寿命周期风险评价
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作者单位:

江西理工大学 经济管理学院,江西 赣州 341000

作者简介:

陈妍(1999—),女,硕士研究生,从事工程项目管理研究。

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中图分类号:

TU201.5

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Risk evaluation of whole life cycle of green building projects based on combination weighting-cloud model
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School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi University of Technology, Ganzhou 341000 , Jiangxi, China

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    摘要:

    绿色建筑项目建设投资大、技术集成高、影响因素广,为全面客观评价绿色建筑项目面临的风险,提出了基于组合赋权和云模型耦合的风险评价模型。文章从全寿命周期的决策、设计、施工至运行维护 4个时间维度出发,建立了风险评价指标体系;采用 AHP-CRITIC组合赋权法计算风险权重,并结合云模型理论,以标准云为判定依据确定风险等级。以某绿色建筑项目进行实例验证,结果表明:该项目总体风险处于较低风险等级,其中施工阶段风险最高,其余依次为运行维护、决策和设计阶段,与实际情况基本相符,验证了模型的适用性,并据此提出针对性的管理措施。研究结果可为绿色建筑项目全寿命周期风险评价提供一定的参考依据。

    Abstract:

    The green building project construction investment is large, the technology integration is high, and the influencing factors are wide, in order to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the risks faced by the green building project, a risk evaluation model based on the combination of empowerment and cloud model coupling is proposed. A risk evaluation index system is established from the four time dimensions of decision-making, design, construction to operation and maintenance of the whole life cycle; the risk weight is calculated by using the AHP-CRITIC combination assignment method, and combined with the cloud model theory, the risk level is determined based on the standard cloud. The results show that the overall risk of the project is at a lower risk level, with the construction phase having the highest risk, and the remaining phases being operation and maintenance, decision-making and design, which is basically in line with the actual situation, verifying the applicability of the model and proposing targeted management measures accordingly. The results of the study can provide a certain reference basis for the whole life cycle risk evaluation of green building projects.

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陈妍,徐水太.于组合赋权-云模型的绿色建筑项目全寿命周期风险评价[J].工程建设,2025,57(5):86-94

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-17
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