To optimize sintering production index and reduce the return fines rate， in the study of this paper through sinter pot test combined with multivariate statistical analysis and simulation， the synergistic effect of key parameters， including solid fuel ratio，basicity (R)，w(CaO)，w(FeO)，and w(MgO)， on the tumbler strength， yield， reduction degradation index(RDI)， and melting and dripping properties of the sinter was revealed， and the regulatory mechanism of sintering process parameters on the physicochemical characteristics and metallurgical properties of sinter was systematically explored. The results indicate that when the solid fuel ratio is between 4.05% and 4.55%， the tumbler strength of the tested sinter reaches its peak value; when R is 1.9～2.1 and w(CaO) is 11.2%～11.8%， they can synergistically promote the formation of calcium ferrite (volume fraction ＞ 32%)， suppress the precipitation of brittle phases such as calcium iron olivine ( CaO·FeO·SiO₂)， and significantly enhance the structural stability of the sinter (RDI＞3. 15 mm reaches 78.3%) .The simulation results with Monte Carlo method show that when w(FeO) is 8.5%～9.0%，R is 1. 8～2. 1，w(CaO) is 11.2%～11.8%， and the sintering terminal temperature is≥430 ℃， the probability of the ore return rate ＜16% reaches 92.3%. Under the optimized process parameters that w( FeO) is 8.74%，R is 1.98，w(CaO) is 11.46% and w(MgO) is 2.38%， the drum strength of the sinter actually produced increased to 77.70% (increased by 0. 49%)， the utilization coefficient of the sintering machine increased to 1.426 t /(m²·h)， the return fines rate decreased to 16.46% ( decreased by 11.55%)， the proportion of particles larger than 10 mm reached 75.82% (increased by 0.9%) ，and the solid fuel consumption decreased to 50.31 kg/t (decreased by 1.47%). The findings of this study can provide a data basis for the refined control of the sintering process.