基于层次分析-未确知测度的深基坑施工风险评估
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王龙飞(1998—),男,博士,工程师,从事建筑安全管理与技术研发的工作。

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TU753; U231+.4

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安徽省大学生创新创业训练项目(编号:S202410360234)


Risk assessment model of deep foundation pit construction based on analytic hierarchy process and unascertained measure theory
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    摘要:

    深基坑施工具有危险性大、工序复杂、致灾因素多的特点,如何评判其安全状态成为风险管控首要解决的问题。文章将层次分析法与未确知测度理论紧密结合,构建风险评估模型,从安全管理、外部及地质环境、施工质量和监测因素4个方面甄选72个二级评价指标,并从5个等级对定性和定量指标进行量化,建立评估指标体系;采用未确知测度理论求解单指标评价矩阵并建立测度函数,运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重系数,依据识别准则计算综合置信度比较风险级别。将模型应用于工程实例深基坑施工风险评估中,评价结果为Ⅱ级,属于低风险,与实际情况相互吻合。该评估模型对深基坑施工风险进行了合理且客观的评估,为有效识别和准确评估深基坑施工风险提供新的方法。

    Abstract:

    Deep foundation pit construction has the characteristics of high risk, complex process and many disaster-causing factors. How to reasonably judge its safety state has become the primary problem to be solved in risk management and control. The analytic hierarchy process is highly integrated with the unascertained measure theory, and the risk assessment model is constructed and applied in the construction process of deep foundation pit. 22 secondary evaluation indexes were selected from four aspects of safety management, external and geological environment, construction quality and monitoring factors, and the qualitative and quantitative indexes are quantified from five levels to establish the evaluation index system. The unascertained measure theory is used to solve the single index evaluation matrix and establish the measure function. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the objective weight of each index, and the risk level of deep foundation pit construction is judged according to the identification criteria. The model is applied to the risk assessment of deep foundation pit construction in engineering projects. The evaluation result is level II, which belongs to low risk, which is consistent with the actual situation. The evaluation model makes a reasonable and objective evaluation of the construction risk of deep foundation pit, and provides a new method for effectively identifying and accurately evaluating the construction risk of deep project pit.

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王龙飞,赵运春,杨宇,刘奥,黄金坤,邓权龙.基于层次分析-未确知测度的深基坑施工风险评估[J].工程建设,2025,57(12):75-82

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-05
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