历史文化街区改造的PPP投资风险影响因素
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万 源(2001—),女,硕士研究生,从事建筑经济与管理研究。

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F283

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Risk factors in PPP investment for the regeneration of historical and cultural districts
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    摘要:

    在新型城镇化与城市更新战略纵深推进背景下,历史文化街区改造PPP项目已成为延续城市文脉、提升城市品质的关键路径。然而,该类项目投资风险成因复杂,从项目运营者视角系统识别关键风险因素,对保障投资安全与可持续运营具有重要现实意义。本文基于项目运营者视角,采用DEMATEL-ISM集成方法,识别并分析历史文化街区改造PPP项目投资风险影响因素的传导机制与层级结构。研究表明,风险因素可划分为7级递阶体系;其中,PPP政策变动、文物保护政策加码及特许经营期限与延展不确定性风险为根本层驱动因素;政府付费违约与合同风险分担机制不完善是关键层枢纽因素;租金与销售收入不及预期、运营成本上涨等则为表象层因素。本文研究成果可为项目运营者系统识别风险、优化管控策略提供理论依据与决策支持,对推动历史文化街区改造PPP项目的稳健实施与长效运营具有重要的参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of the deepening implementation of new urban development and urban renewal strategies, PPP projects for the transformation of historical and cultural districts have become a crucial approach to preserving the city's cultural heritage and enhancing its quality. However, the reasons for the investment risks associated with such projects are complex. It is of great practical significance to systematically identify the key risk factors from the perspective of project operators, in order to ensure investment safety and sustainable operation. Based on the perspective of project operators, the DEMATEL-ISM integrated method is used to identify and analyze the transmission mechanisms and hierarchical structure of the risk factors affecting PPP projects for the transformation of historical and cultural districts. Research indicates that risk factors can be classified into a hierarchical system with 7 levels. Among these, changes in PPP policies, increased regulations regarding cultural heritage protection, and uncertainties related to the duration and extension of franchising agreements are the fundamental driving factors. Government payment defaults and inadequate mechanisms for sharing risks within contracts are key intermediate factors. On the other hand, failures to meet expected rental and sales revenues, as well as rising operating costs, represent the superficial factors. The research findings presented in this paper can provide a theoretical basis and decision-making support for project operators to systematically identify risks and optimize management strategies. They are of great significance for ensuring the sound implementation and long-term operation of PPP projects related to the transformation of historical and cultural districts.

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万 源,祝连波.历史文化街区改造的PPP投资风险影响因素[J].工程建设,2026,58(9):70-78

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-19
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